- Prior was -0.8%
- Index vs 70.9 prior
This is the lone notable US economic release today and with the Fed in blackout, all eyes are on Iran today.
The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI), published monthly by the National Association of Realtors, tracks signed contracts on existing homes and serves as a leading indicator of closed sales, which typically follow one to two months later. The index is benchmarked to 100, representing the average level of contract activity in 2001.
In January 2026, pending home sales fell 0.8 percent month over month to an index reading of 70.9 — the lowest level in the history of the series. The decline also marked a 0.4 percent drop from a year earlier and came as a disappointment to forecasters, who had expected a 1.4 percent increase. Regionally, the Midwest and West posted modest monthly gains, while the Northeast and South declined. Year-over-year performance was similarly mixed, with the South and West rising while the Northeast and Midwest fell.
The January pullback interrupted momentum that had been building in late 2025. In November, contract signings had surged 3.3 percent, reaching a nearly three-year high as falling mortgage rates drew buyers back into the market. That optimism faded heading into the new year despite continued improvement in affordability conditions.
NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun noted that mortgage rates nearing 6 percent had expanded the pool of qualifying households by an estimated 5.5 million compared with a year earlier, but that most newly eligible buyers had yet to act. He cautioned that without meaningful gains in housing supply, increased buyer activity would primarily push prices higher rather than lift transaction volumes, further straining affordability. On the legislative front, Yun pointed to the bipartisan passage of the Housing for the 21st Century Act in the House as a positive signal toward addressing the nation's chronic housing shortage.
