- Prior was +0.1%
- Ex-transport +1.2% vs +0.4% prior (revised to +0.5%)
Revisions to durable goods orders:
- Orders -1.3% vs -1.4% prelim
- Ex-transport +0.9% vs +0.8% prelim
- Capital goods orders nondefense ex-air +0.7% vs +0.6% prelim
- Capital goods shipments nondefense ex-air +1.4% vs +1.3% prelim
This is a solid report with the ex-transport number looking particularly good, but it's a third-tier economic indicator.
The U.S. factory orders report, officially known as the Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders report, is published monthly by the Census Bureau, typically about five weeks after the reference month. It provides a comprehensive look at demand across the entire manufacturing sector, covering both durable and non-durable goods. The report is closely watched by economists and market participants as a gauge of industrial activity and business investment trends.
One important feature of the factory orders report is that it includes revisions to the advance durable goods data released about two weeks earlier. The preliminary durable goods figures often attract significant market attention on their own, but the factory orders release refines those estimates with more complete survey responses. This means traders and analysts revisit their initial assessments once the revised numbers are in hand, particularly for the volatile transportation and defense categories.
The report breaks down new orders, shipments, unfilled orders, and inventories, offering a layered view of manufacturing momentum. Core capital goods orders — excluding aircraft and defense — are especially valued as a proxy for business spending plans.
In recent years the report has reflected the broader push-and-pull of post-pandemic normalization. Factory orders surged through much of 2021 and 2022 as supply chains strained to meet reopening demand, then moderated as interest rate hikes cooled goods spending. Through 2024 and into early 2025, readings were mixed, with periodic boosts from large aircraft and defense contracts offsetting softer demand in categories like machinery and primary metals, leaving the manufacturing sector in a holding pattern as businesses navigated an uncertain trade and policy environment.
