US dollar chops with eyes on the T-note

  • The first look at 5% backs off

Everyone is a bond trader right now, whether they know it or not. The dollar has backed off and risk trades have improved after 10-year yields failed to break 5% on the first look earlier today.

US 10y yields d
US 10y yields daily

The weekly initial jobless claims report was bearish for bonds but yields didn't move up as the Philly Fed at the same time might have capped it. Eyes are also on Powell at noon.

For now, there are some value buyers buying bonds and perhaps some short covering. I can't imagine much real money is stepping in ahead of 5% but I'm certain there will be a wave of buying once it's touched.

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