- Prior was +2.7%
- Factory orders ex-transport +1.0% vs +0.2% prior
Revisions to durable goods orders:
- Orders -1.4% vs -1.4% prelim
- Ex defense -2.4% vs -2.5% prelim
- Non-defense capital goods orders ex-air +0.8% vs +0.6% prelim
This is mostly in-line but note the small improvement in core US orders. It's tough to find a signal in this series as it's been volatile and there's been no trend.
In September, total factory orders edged up 0.2% to $614.9 billion, following a downwardly revised 1.3% gain in August. Durable goods orders rose 0.5%, led by a second consecutive month of gains in transportation equipment. Nondurable goods orders were essentially flat. Excluding transportation, orders rose a modest 0.2%, while excluding defense they were unchanged — suggesting limited organic momentum outside of lumpy defense and aircraft contracts.
October brought a 1.2% decline to $607.4 billion, erasing the prior month's gains and matching market expectations. The drop was driven by a 6.5% plunge in transportation equipment as both nondefense and defense aircraft orders cratered. Nondurable goods orders also slipped 0.3%, led by weakness in petroleum and coal products. Excluding transportation, orders dipped 0.1%.
November delivered a sharp rebound, with factory orders surging 2.7% to $621.6 billion — the largest monthly increase in six months and well above the 1.6% consensus. Durable goods orders jumped 5.3%, powered by a 14.7% spike in transportation equipment as nondefense aircraft orders nearly doubled. Nondurable goods orders were flat. Core orders excluding transportation rose a more measured 0.2%. Total shipments slipped 0.1% to $606.3 billion, while unfilled orders climbed 1.4% to $1,513.5 billion — up in 16 of the last 17 months — and inventories edged up 0.1% to $948.4 billion. The unfilled orders-to-shipments ratio rose to 7.04 from 6.93, and the inventories-to-shipments ratio held steady at 1.56. Year-over-year, factory orders were up 5.4% in November, underscoring that despite monthly volatility, the broader manufacturing order book remained on a positive trajectory.
