- Prior month 0.3%
- CPI core 0.2% vs 0.3% estimate
- CPI YoY 3.0% versus 3.1% estimate. Prior month 2.9%. Highest since May 2044
- CPI Core 3.0% versus 3.1% estimate. Prior month 3.1%
- The unrounded core rate was 0.23% which rounded moves down to 0.2%.
- The unrounded headline was 0.31% (last month was 0.38% rounded higher to 0.40%)
The October meeting has continued to price in a 25 basis point cut. The Fed will announce or rate decision on Wednesday.
For end of year, the expectations is for 49 basis points of cuts versus 45 basis points prior to the release (so two rate cuts).
The US stocks are higher with the
- Dow industrial average up 240 points.
- S&P up 45 points and the
- NASDAQ index up 237 points.
Looking at the US yield curve, yields have moved lower with the 10 year yield now back below 4%.
- 2-year yield 3.454%, -2.7 basis points
- 5 year yield 3.575%, -2.1 basis points
- 10 year yield 3.977%, -1.1 basis points
- 30 year yield 4.564%, -0.7 basis points
The US dollar has moved lower:
- EURUSD: The has moved back above its 100 and 200 hour moving averages between 1.16145 and 1.16306. That area is now close risk. The next target comes against its 100 day moving average at 1.16584.
- USDJPY: The USDJPY has moved lower to test the swing level target at 152.11. The low price reached 152.199. Topside risk is now near 152.73
- GBPUSD: The moved up to test its 100 day moving average at 1.33586. The 200 hour moving averages at 1.33741. Getting above both those levels is needed to increase the bullish bias. The high price reached 1.3358 right at the 100 hour MA
See the earlier video outlining the key technical levels going into the CPI data by CLICKING HERE.
