A couple of snippets via local analysts here in OZ and NZ.
NAB:
- The consensus looking for 0.5%/7.3%, another solid monthly and higher annual read after 0.5%/7.0% for December.
- Core CPI is also expected to have grown 0.5% m/m, annual growth pushing up to 5.9% from 5.5%.
- Base effects will remain unhelpful until April.
ASB:
- We expect both headline and core US CPI rose by 0.5%/mth in January.
- Omicron-related disruptions are prolonging supply-side constraints and underpinning already high inflation. As a result, we expect both annual headline and core CPI reached a fresh record high of 7.3% and 6.9% respectively.
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I'm not sure the numbers tonight are really that significant (I know, everyone else does). The Fed appears locked in to hiking hard and fast. If the CPI is high in the data release it'll cement the Fed hike outlook. If its low it'll be shrugged off. Either way I suspect the bond selloff to get renewed impetus.
