- Prior month core PCE 2.6%
- Core PCE MoM 0.2% versus 0.1% estimate. Unrounded was lower than the 0.2% gain at 0.188%
- Core PCE urine year 2.6% versus 2.5% estimate. Last month 2.6%
- PCE MoM 0.1% vs 0.1% estimate. The unrounded was lower than 0.1% at 0.0788%
- PCE YoY 2.5% versus 2.5% estimate and 2.6% prior
- Personal income +0.2% versus 0.4% estimate. Prior month revised down to 0.4% from 0.5%. Wages and salaries were up 0.3%.
- Personal spending 0.2% versus 0.4% last month (revised from 0.3%).
- Savings rate came in at 3.4% versus 3.5% last month
For the full report from the BEA click here
Other views:
- Annualized 3-month inflation rate 2.3% versus 2.9% prior.
- Annualized 6-month rate for core PCE 3.4% versus 3.3% prior.
The core PCE was a bit higher than expectations which is congruent with the core PCE data released yesterday through the GDP report.
Core PCE and personal income and personal consumption
Looking at the markets, yields remain lower:
- 2 year yield 4.412%, -3.1 basis points
- 5-year yield 4.106%, -2.7 basis points
- 10-year yield 4.221%, -2.5 basis points
- 30-year yield 4.465%, master .5 basis points
Looking at the stock futures:
- Dow Industrial Average average +254 points
- S&P of 43.03 points
- NASDAQ index up 200.92 points
The Fed pricing sees 67 basis points of cut by the end of the year with a cut in September priced in. That is little changed from pre-release levels.
