US August PCE core +2.9% y/y vs +2.9% expected

  • Highlights of the US August 2025 PCE report
PCE 2

Core:

  • Core m/m +0.2% vs +0.2% exp
  • Unrounded core PCE +0.227%
  • Supercore (services ex-shelter) +3.4%
  • Services inflation+3.6% y/y and +0.325% m/m

Headline PCE:

  • Headline PCE 2.7% vs 2.7 exp
  • Deflator +0.3% m/m vs +0.3% exp
  • Unrounded m/m +0.265%

Consumer spending and income for August :

  • Personal income +0.4% vs +0.3% expected. Prior month +0.4%
  • Personal spending +0.6% vs +0.5% expected. Prior month +0.5%
  • Real personal spending +0.4% vs +0.4% prior
  • Savings rate 4.6% vs 4.8% prior

The year-over-year core PCE number really highlights the Fed's problem. This isn't the pre-covid period anymore.

PCE core yy
PCE core yy

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