US CPI
- Prior m/m +0.2%
- CPI m/m +0.6% versus +0.6% expected
- CPI y/y 3.7% versus 3.6% expected
- Prior y/y 3.2%
Core measures:
- Core CPI m/m +0.3% versus +0.2% expected. Last month 0.2%
- Unrounded core at +0.278%
- Core CPI y/y 4.3% versus 4.3% expected. Last month was 4.7%
- Shelter +0.3% versus +0.4% last month. Year on year 7.3% versus 7.7% last month
- Services less rent and shelter +0.5% m/m vs +0.2% prior
- Real weekly earnings -0.1% vs 0.0% prior
The market was pricing in a 9% chance of a hike next week ahead of the data but that rose to 53% for December. Afterwards, the September hike odds are down to 5% but December held steady.
The numbers are modestly hotter than expected with the headline boosted by a 10.6% increase in gasoline prices m/m while the core was boosted by a 4.9% rise in airline fares. One drag was used vehicles, which fell 1.2% m/m.
In the FX market, the US dollar swung higher and lower but is now largely unchanged after the release.
