US 30-year yields
How is that for a headline?
If US 30-year yields wrap up the week at 4.94% or higher, it will be the largest one-week rise in 43 years. That number will feed directly into mortgage costs and corporate borrowing. I'd imagine spreads aren't exactly behaving well in this environment either.
What's driving it? It's a combination of things:
- The basis/swaps trades blowing up
- Rising consumer inflation expectations
- Congressional hawks rolling over in the budget vote this week (larger deficits)
- Slowing US growth
- A loss of confidence in the White House's grasp of economics
- De-dollarization
- A Fed that's too worried about inflation to step in
Alone, each of those is something of a crisis but they're all happening at once.
