Bonds are bid today and US 10-year yields just fell below a pair of June lows. That has them trading at the lowest since May 8 on a mix of a flight to safety on war fears and a dovish repricing of the Fed following Waller/Bowman.
I suspect the Fed is the bigger factor here as Bowman flagged a softening employment picture as one of the reasons to cut rates.
Technically, this clears the way for a deeper dip to 4.15% but eyes will be on this week's PCE report and other upcoming today. Today's S&P Global US PMIs on manufacturing and services were largely in line with estimates but the commentary in the report highlighted a number of tariff effects that are tough to disentangle.
Also note today's gold rally as it's extended gains to $20 and is testing Friday's high. It's another sign of a bid for safety even as other war proxies like oil are reversing.
