That figure is up from the £9.9 billion headroom as set out in their forecast in March. As for the other details:
- Budget extends freezes of personal tax thresholds for a further 3 years from 2028-29 to 2030-31
- The freezing of personal tax and employer NICs thresholds raises £8.0 billion
- There will be a total increase in receipts by £14.9 billion on personal tax changes
- Probability of meeting current budget target is at 59% (previously 54% in March)
- 2025 GDP growth seen at 1.5% (previously 1.0%)
- 2026 GDP growth seen at 1.4% (previously 1.9%)
- 2027 GDP growth seen at 1.5%
- 2025 CPI inflation seen at 3.5% (previously 3.3%)
- 2027 CPI inflation seen at 2.0%
- Debt as a share of GDP seen at 95% this year and to end the decade at 96%
- Full document
This feels a little odd as some of these things feel like they should be part of the budget announcement itself. Markets are already of course taking to it and reacting accordingly with UK gilt yields tumbling lower while the pound spiked higher for a brief moment before settling a little bit.
10-year yields in the UK are down from 4.50% to 4.46% while GBP/USD pushed up from around 1.3155 earlier to 1.3185 currently with the high earlier touching 1.3200.
The big round numbers are what we're looking for and they are a positive, especially the fiscal headroom indicated in the headline. So, no need for Reeves I guess? Seems like we could just call it a day unless she messes up the delivery.
