UBS just raised their gold price forecast for 2025 year-end to $3,800, up by $300 from their previous projection. Meanwhile, they are also increasing their forecast for the middle of 2026 as they see gold hitting $3,900 then - up $200 from previously. The firm notes that:
"We maintain an Attractive view on gold and stay long the metal in our global asset allocation. Moreover, our analysis suggests a mid-single-digit percentage allocation to gold is optimal."
On the more bullish factors, they expect central bank buying to keep gold underpinned with the firm anticipating purchases this year to hit between 900 to 950 tons this year, just shy of last year's figure of just above 1,000 tons.
As for risks to their outlook, UBS says that "the key risk for gold is if the Fed is forced to raise rates due to inflation-related upside surprises".
