Trump's tariff threat then backdown cycle - market sees "boy who cried wolf"

  • And more trade policy volatility ahead

A couple of snippets from analysts on Friday, that have proved prescient, comments indicating Trump's tariff threats being viewed as hollow.

Vanguard:

  • investors expect the steep 50% tariff proposal on imports from the E.U. to be negotiated down, similarly to what happened with China
  • market has slowed down now because it's happened before, and we know what happened before
  • "It's kind of like the boy who cried wolf"
  • administration is not crazy, they have a plan and there is a limit," to how far they will go

Barclays:

  • threats on the EU are ‘primarily a negotiating tactic’
  • "the US has not turned the page on tariffs and that more trade policy volatility lies ahead”
Trump tariffs

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