Next week, lawyers will argue in the biggest economic court case at the US Supreme Court in years.
Oral argument is scheduled for November 5 and will be focused on Trump's use of International Emergency Economic Powers to impose tariffs. Typically, these were used against enemies of the United States like Iran as essentially sanctions but Trump is now using them for whatever he wants.
Originally, he declared fentanyl and emergency and used that to imposed sanctions on Canada and the US. That declaration is at the heart of this case but lawyers might do well to cite Trump's own words for why tariffs are now being imposed.
Any reasonable court would not find that to be an 'emergency' so this case is going to really be about not just tariffs, but about how much influence Trump and MAGA have over the Supreme Court. Given that Trump mulled this weekend about running for a third term, this could have far-reaching implications.
Notably, these are only the arguments and decisions typically come 2-4 months afterwards but we will hear about questions from the bench that might offer an indication which way they're leaning. The decision itself will be a major market mover at some point next year.
Another interesting caveat is that today, Republican Senator from Alaska Lisa Murkowski signed a letter alongside more than 200 Democrats that was sent to the justices to invalidate the tariffs. Republicans hold 53 seats currently and two of them could swing in the midterms so if tariffs come to a future vote, that could be an interesting one.
As for the odds the tariffs will be struck down, this is a thin market but puts it at 38%.
