Democratic state Rep. Aftyn Behn and Republican Matt Van Epps are facing off today in Tennessee's 7th House district in a race that could get the market's attention.
Trump won the district against Harris by a margin of 60-38% and also won 56-41% in the 2020 election (which Trump lost). Republican Mark Green said he quit in June to take a job in the private sector after winning 60-38%. In fact, he founded the company, which is a trade/business development firm that appears to be involved in Guyana, which is an oil-drilling hotspot.
The district is a generally ultra-safe Republican district but polls show that it's closer in a possible sign of things to come in the midterms.
At PredictIt, the market shows a 3-12% win for Van Epps. If it comes in at 5% or lower, that's going to make many Republican Congressmen nervous, and potentially lead to some pushback against Trump, and possibly tariffs. Politicans want nothing more than power and they need to win elections to maintain it. Trump's approval numbers are poor and Republican Congress has been a rubber stamp. A poor election today could make many Republicans fear a November 2026 wipeout.
