Here is a great from topdowncharts.com that highlights the seasonality of volatility:
If it feels like it's been getting less volatile this year, then you're certainly onto something. But volatility is like yo-yo as every drop sets the stage for a rebound. The seasonal pattern for that picks up in August before a peak in mid-October.
Fundamentals trump a trend like this but it's easy to envision how we could once-again fall into this pattern. The market has gotten hurriedly long in risk assets and recession risk has faded. A surprise hot inflation print could spark rate hike fears, or a surprise drop in jobs could spark worries. Even earnings season could bring with it some turmoil, as it did to TSLA and NFLX this week.
