There is non-stop talk of insider trading in markets, including a viral report about how volumes in stock and oil futures surged minutes before Trump's post about talks with Iran.
At around 6:50 a.m. in New York, S&P 500 e-Mini futures trading on the CME recorded a sharp and isolated jump in volume and then at 7:05 am, Trump posted the announcement.
Now that story got plenty of attention but one that hit at nearly the same time: The enforcement chief of the SEC quit abruptly after just six months on the job because she wanted to go after insider trading.
Two of the people said Ryan wanted to be more aggressive in pursuing charges for fraud and other misconduct including in cases that touched the president's circle, but faced resistance from SEC chair Paul Atkins and other top Republican political appointees.
Two of the cases that were cited were from cryptocurrency entrepreneur Justin Sun and another involving Elon Musk.
Normally, I'm one to quickly brush aside all the talk about 'manipulated' markets and insider trading because it's genuinely unhelpful to making clear-headed decisions but this war is a mess. There is so much disinformation and there are telltale signs of insider trading. There is also a sense that no one is at risk of prosecution.
That's an ugly mix and it risks being institutionalize. That's the kind of thing that would kill short-term trading on macro and events. It argues for taking longer-term position or seeking markets where there is more information fairness. The good thing about FX is that the market is so big that insiders can't move it but that's not the case in other markets and I can't see it getting better any time soon. There is such a dash to get rich now that risks collapsing faith in some capital markets.
