The week ahead: Earnings season shifts into maximum overdrive

  • A day-by-day look at major earnings and potential macro signals
earning week recap

We have a massive slate of mega-cap tech, critical industrial bellwethers, and the titans of energy all reporting next week.

The key theme will be justification. Valuations are stretched in the tech sector, and the market needs to see not just beat-and-raise quarters, but clear evidence that AI capex is going to translate into revenue. On the macro side, we are looking for signs of cracking in the consumer data from the credit card giants and shipping volumes from the logistics heavyweights.

Monday

Monday is relatively light, giving markets a moment to position before the volatility ramps up.

  • Before Open: We get a look at the European consumer with Ryanair. Watch their guidance on fares; if they are softening, it is a deflationary signal. Baker Hughes will give us early insight into energy services demand before the oil majors report later in the week.

  • After Close: The focus shifts to industrials and materials. Nucor and Steel Dynamics are the ones to watch here. Steel demand is a proxy for real economic activity—construction and manufacturing. If their outlook is gloomy, it sets a cautious tone for the GDP components. AGNC will also be interesting for the mortgage-REIT space and interest rate sensitivity.

Tuesday

Tuesday is where the macro picture comes into focus. We have diverse sectors reporting that act as pulse checks for the broader economy.

  • Before Open: This is a heavy morning. UPS is the critical report here. As a global shipping bellwether, their volume data tells us exactly what is happening with global trade and consumer demand. GM will update us on the auto sector—keep an eye on their EV margins and inventory levels. We also have UnitedHealthcare, which acts as a massive weight in the Dow and S&P; healthcare costs have been a sticky inflation component, so their commentary matters. Boeing is also on the docket; expect volatility there as they navigate production hurdles.

  • After Close: All eyes will be on Texas Instruments. They are the first major semiconductor name to report this week and arguably the most important for the broad cycle. They sell chips into everything—autos, industrial, appliances. If they call a bottom in the cycle, that is bullish for global growth. Microsoft is listed on some calendars for Tuesday, but looking at this schedule, the heavy tech hitters seem clustered mid-week (Note: double-check confirming Microsoft is Wednesday on this specific graphic). On this graphic, Tuesday PM features Starbucks (correction: that is Seagate and Packaging Corp, the Starbucks logo is not there, it is Seagate, Manhattan, etc). Manhattan Associates is a good read on supply chain tech.

Wednesday: The Main Event

This is the day that will likely define the week's price action. The volume of market cap reporting on Wednesday is staggering.

  • Before Open: ASML is the key. They make the machines that make the chips. If their bookings are weak, the entire AI-hardware narrative takes a hit. AT&T will be a yield play and a check on the telecom consumer. Boeing (checking graphic again—Boeing is Tuesday, Wednesday has General Dynamics). General Dynamics will be relevant for the defense sector amid geopolitical tensions.

  • After Close: This is the fireworks show. Microsoft, Meta, and Tesla all reporting in the same window. We will have more on those closer to the releases:

    • Microsoft: The market wants to see AI revenue acceleration in Azure/Copilot. If they miss on cloud growth, the whole sector could re-rate.

    • Meta: It is all about ad spend and efficiency. Zuckerberg's "Year of Efficiency" was a hit; now they need to show growth.

    • Tesla: Margins, margins, margins. The EV price war has hurt them. Guidance on deliveries and the Cybertruck ramp will drive the stock.

    • IBM and ServiceNow also report, adding more data points to enterprise software demand.

Thursday:

If Wednesday is about cloud and AI, Thursday is about the consumer and global hardware.

  • Before Open: We get a massive read on the consumer wallet. Mastercard will tell us if spending is slowing down. We also have Comcast and Blackstone. Caterpillar is the other major one here—often seen as the ultimate global growth barometer. If CAT is warning on orders, the "soft landing" narrative gets harder to defend.

  • After Close: Apple takes center stage. The China story is the biggest risk here. Traders will be parsing every word regarding iPhone sales in Asia. Visa also reports, complementing the Mastercard data from the morning. If both credit giants show rising delinquencies or slowing transaction volumes, the recession bears will come out of hibernation.

Friday:

We wrap up the week with the energy giants and some final financial names.

  • Before Open: It is Big Oil day. ExxonMobil and Chevron report. With oil prices hovering in a defined range, the focus will be on capital discipline and buybacks. Cash flow should be strong, but production guidance is the variable. Chevron has had some operational hiccups recently, so execution is key. American Express is the final piece of the consumer puzzle; their premium customer base usually holds up better, so any weakness there is a significant red flag.

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