The latest poll by Ipsos Mori notes that the majority of UK adults think it likely that Boris Johnson will not be prime minister by the end of 2022, which given the circus over the past couple of weeks (at least), this isn't that surprising.
The big question for traders is what would BoJo's departure mean for GBP?
Obviously, political instability is nearly always a negative for a country's currency, but there are many that will see Johnson's departure as a positive. And with City savvy Rishi Sunak as the bookies' favourite (trading 3.25 of Betfair), perhaps GBP will be a buy on the news if it happens.
FWIW, my current view is that Boris lasts the distance, never underestimate how short the memory of the electorate is.
GBP/USD currently trading 1.3230
