US railway CSX isn’t seeing a macro rescue in 2026. Management is planning for flat industrial production, modest GDP growth and sticky inflation within the firm above 3%, with customers cautious under tariff pressure. Housing and autos remain headwinds, trucking is soft, and there’s no near-term catalyst—leaving infrastructure spending and power demand as the lone offsets nationally.
The shares are up 4.5% today on a mix of solid execution and M&A chatter but have been flat since 2021.
Here are some revealing comments on the macro outlook from the conference call.
Stephen Angel - CEO
- “This has been a challenging year for CSX and for our industry overall with subdued demand and limited growth opportunities persisting across many of our key markets.”
- “As we plan for 2026, we do not anticipate any meaningful improvement in macroeconomic conditions.”
- “We are assuming low single-digit revenue growth for the year based on flat industrial production, modest GDP growth and fuel and benchmark coal prices consistent with current levels.”
- “Obviously, any time you get a little help from the economy, that would certainly help, but I really don’t sit here and think I need to have a lot of help from the economy.”
Maryclare Kenney — Chief Commercial Officer
“We continue to navigate the challenges of a mixed industrial demand environment.”
“There’s no short-term catalyst on the horizon to lift the major industrial markets.”
“Many of our customers are carefully controlling freight spend as they manage through inflation and tariff pressures.”
“Consensus forecasts call for a modest decline in housing starts this next year.”
“Affordability and overall demand levels continue to impact the prospects for North American light vehicle production.”
“Minerals volume remains supported by demand for aggregates and cement for infrastructure projects.”
“The markets reflect the reality of a still soft trucking market, and we also need to be aware of the risk of a slowdown in imports after the pull forward of activity that occurred through 2025.”
“Global steel markets and benchmark prices remain subdued.”
Kevin Boone — CFO
“Overall, I would look at inflation probably being in that 3% to 3.5% range.” (this is corporate level, not nationally)
That's a revealing picture and it runs counter to some of the early-year optimism.
