S&P put the odds of a recession over the next 12 months at near enough to a coin toss

S&P Ratings analysts on US US recession risk.

• Our qualitative assessment of recession risk over the next 12 months is 45%
• within a wider range of 40%-50%
• We see risks closer to 50%, the top of that range, heading into 2023 as cumulative rate hikes take hold.