Singapore’s economy grew faster than expected in the third quarter, prompting the government to sharply upgrade its outlook for next year.
- Q3 GDP expanded 4.2% year-on-year, beating the Reuters poll of 4.0% and far above the earlier 2.9% advance estimate.
- Quarter-on-quarter growth rose 2.4% on a seasonally adjusted basis.
Buoyed by stronger global demand and better-than-expected growth among major trading partners, the Ministry of Trade and Industry lifted its 2025 GDP forecast to around 4.0%, up from the earlier 1.5%–2.5% range.
- Growth for 2026 is projected at 1.0%–3.0%.
However, officials warned that manufacturing and trade-related services are likely to expand at a slower pace in 2026, reflecting a more moderate global cycle. Enterprise Singapore narrowed its forecast for 2025 non-oil domestic exports (NODX) to around +2.5%, with 2026 NODX expected to grow 0.0% to +2.0%.
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The Monetary Authority of Singapore kept policy unchanged in October, citing resilient growth despite U.S. tariffs. While Singapore faces a 10% U.S. tariff on its exports—below the rates imposed on its regional peers—sector-specific levies, including a potential 100% tariff on branded pharmaceuticals, remain a key risk. Authorities have delayed implementation of the drug tariff to allow time for negotiation.
