ANZ Research likes short GBP/CHF exposure in spot targeting a move towards 1.11.
"We do not expect the broad November 2022 rally in the GBP to be long lasting given the UK’s weak economic fundamentals: its twin deficits, high inflation and rising interest rates. The Bank of England predicts a two-year recession ahead. While yields and improving risk sentiment have driven recent upside in the GBP, the yield differential with the CHF is expected to continue narrowing," ANZ notes.
"Further, a key driver of FX is real yields which are more supportive for the CHF. Short GBP/CHF is a defensive, lowbeta trade to hedge any downside from deteriorating economic conditions in the UK and Europe. Consensus expectation of the Swiss central bank’s terminal rate is 1.5%," ANZ adds.
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