China’s auto sector is in turmoil as years of state-driven overproduction have created a glut of vehicles, forcing steep discounts, gray-market sales, and unprofitable dealers. Analysts warn only a handful of automakers will survive long term, but Beijing has resisted allowing failures due to economic and political risks, leaving the world’s largest car market trapped in a cycle of oversupply.
Reuters carried an extended report on this. In summary:
China’s auto industry is grappling with severe overcapacity after years of government policies that pushed production targets over market demand. Carmakers and dealers now face a glut of vehicles that has triggered steep discounts, unusual sales tactics, and widespread losses across the supply chain.
Dealers slash prices to qualify for factory rebates, while unsold cars are registered and insured as “sold,” exported as zero-mileage “used” vehicles, or dumped onto gray-market platforms like Zcar. Some vehicles even end up abandoned in car graveyards or auctioned online at a fraction of their original price. Analysts say the system has become a vicious cycle of oversupply and destructive competition.
Local governments have exacerbated the problem by offering cheap land and subsidies to attract factories, creating excess capacity nationwide. While giants like BYD and Geely may weather the storm, most of China’s 129 EV and hybrid brands are unlikely to survive, with consultants predicting only 15 will be viable by 2030. Despite calls for consolidation, Beijing has been reluctant to let automakers fail, fearing mass layoffs and slower growth.
The crisis has wider implications: autos and related industries make up about a tenth of China’s GDP, and foreign automakers are rapidly losing market share. Meanwhile, Europe and the U.S. are wary of a flood of cheap Chinese cars disrupting their markets. With EV price wars now entering a third year, the industry faces a shakeout, but political incentives and economic risks may delay tough reforms.
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Australia has no local car manufacturers, so nothing to protect. Getting some of these into the coutnry would be an big impact on inflation (lower).
