It feels like we're beating a dead horse almost every day now. After a tentative pause before the highs on Friday, both gold and silver are off to the races this week in scaling to fresh record highs. Both are up 1.1% on the day with the former seen at $4,156 while the latter is up to $52.87 currently. On the month itself, gold is trading up nearly 8% while silver is up over 13% in October thus far.
From a seasonal perspective, October tends to be a decent month for precious metals but nothing suggestive of the kind of stirring gains from December to January typically.
That said, it wasn't the case last year with gold prices being bookended by monthly declines in both January and December 2024. Instead, gold went on a tear with nine straight monthly gains between February to October 2024.
The precious metal is on a somewhat similar run this year, gaining in 8 out of the past 9 months and looking for another month of gains in October. November seems to be a trickier period to navigate though, with prices having fallen in 9 out of the last 13 November months. The average monthly performance for November in that stretch is -1.7%.
As for silver, it put on a more mixed performance last year. But the gains this year is looking more consistent, mostly in mimicking gold's performance. Interestingly though, silver has been bid in each of the past six October months stretching back to 2019. And the precious metal looks poised to make it seven in a row this year now.
However, November promises to be a tricky period for silver. It has posted a decline in 10 out of the last 12 November months - averaging a monthly performance of -2.3%.
Taking the seasonal factors into account, are we poised for a strong October before some profit-taking and cooling in November? Well, that is just something to consider when having to take into account all the other factors in play at the moment.
Here's a look at the seasonal pattern for both precious metals over the past 15 years:
