In the lead-up to the war in Iran, there were all kinds of conflicting signals about what was coming. It was confusing and much of it was designed to misdirect. Evidently it worked as Iran's leaders met to discuss negotiations and the US/Israel used that to kill them.
When I look back at the signs, the giveaway that a war was coming was the relentless and obvious build up of US military hardware in the region beforehand, including aircraft carriers. That looked like possible gunboat diplomacy but it wasn't, it was straight-up positioning for war.
So what irks me about the marines heading to the area is that we could be repeating the same mistake. Initial reports suggested they would arrive around Tuesday but that was based on a spotting of the ships near Sri Lanka. Trump is talking about a peace deal but his timeline expires almost precisely when these marines arrive. The implication could be that he's just trying to tamp down on oil prices for a week.
Now, I don't see how you're going to do much with 2000 marines in any case but it's still ominous. Were they brought halfway around the world for no reason? Or will this end just like the last round of negotiations with an escalation next weekend.
The obvious target is Kharg Island but that seems like a particularly difficult task for this force. First, they would have to sail through almost the entire Persian Gulf to get there, including past the Strait of Hormuz. That's a long, dangerous trip and it would have to be repeated to supply them and they would be vulnerable the entire time.
More likely might be the Chabahar Port, which is Iran's only port in the Gulf of Oman. Ultimately though, it's hard to envision what the US would accomplish with 2000 marines -- and likely less than half to be used in direct combat.
In other news, Netanyahu summed the leaders of the government coalition to an urgent meeting regarding talks with Iran. That comes following his call with Trump, where he said that there could be a deal.
