Crude oil prices this year have been driven mainly by three unpredictable factors:
OPEC+ cuts: The easing of 2.2 million bpd in voluntary curbs has been only partly delivered, with around 500,000 bpd not reaching the market, making the effect bullish rather than bearish. Future quota increases may have limited market impact until actual output rises.
China storage: China has likely built stockpiles of about 500,000 bpd in 2025, helping stabilize Brent in the $65–70 range. But its buying is price-sensitive, and September imports fell to their lowest since February after mid-year price spikes.
Geopolitics: Conflicts in the Middle East, Ukraine’s strikes on Russian refineries, and U.S. trade wars add uncertainty, with mixed impacts on supply and refining margins.
Overall, the outlook is clouded by the unpredictability of these forces, leaving market forecasts highly uncertain and volatility risks elevated.
Summary of a good Reuters piece.
Meanwhile, oil is on track for its biggest weekly fall in around three months.
