Oil has fallen back from its gap higher at Monday's open - has the supply dynamic changed?

Oil opened with a gap up in Sunday evening (US time) futures trade:

• Oil futures open higher after a weekend of Middle East escalation

Escalation in the Middle East centred on two recent items:

• Late last week a Trafigura-operated fuel tanker was hit by terrorist missiles.
• Over the weekend three US servicemen were killed in an attack

After the gap up oil has dropped back:

Curiously I could do a similar update on gold, it too gapped higher:

• Gold has jumped higher alongside oil as Mid-East turmoil escalates

Its a little different in price action, it covered its gap and began heading higher:

Does oil follow higher?

Some commentary from ANZ suggest that answer should be 'yes', noting a change in the supply outlook:

• "Disruptions to supply have been limited, but that changed on Friday after an oil tanker operating on behalf of Trafigura was hit by a missile off the coast of Yemen,"
• "With oil tankers linked to the U.S. and UK now under threat of attack, the market is likely to reprice the risk of disruptions."