For those interested, this via WPAC a little earlier this week:
- Since the Ukraine war started, commodities have accelerated higher, boosting commodity currencies such as the NZD.
- Yield spreads are also supportive, given the hawkish RBNZ.
- There are near-term risks around the March FOMC which could boost the USD and push NZD/USD down to 0.6700. But beyond that we expect a rebound into year-end, to 0.6900+.
