NY Fed survey: Year-ahead inflation expectations fall to lowest since July 2021

  • The latest survey from the NY Fed
  • One-year ahead inflation expectations 5.0% vs 5.2% in Nov
  • Three-year inflation steady at 3%
  • Five-year inflation expectations 2.4% vs 2.3% prior
  • Expected household income rise 4.6% -- a record
  • Expected household spending rise 5.9% vs 6.9% prior

The income number will give the Fed some pause, but over all this is good for the peak inflation narrative and Fed credibility on inflation.

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