Empire manufacturing index for December came in at -3.9 versus 10.0 estimate. The prior month was 18.7.
Key Components of the Empire manufacturing index
- New orders 0.0 versus 15.9 last month.
- Shipments -5.7 versus 16.8 last month.
- Employment 7.3 versus 6.6 last month.
- Average employee workweek 3.5 versus 7.7 last month
- Prices paid 37.6 versus 49.0 last month.
- Prices received 19.8 versus 24.0 last month.
- Unfilled orders -14.9 versus -5.8 last month
- Delivery times -5.9 versus 7.7 last month
- Inventories 4.0 versus 6.7 last month
- Supply availability -6.9 versus -11.5 last month
The December NY Fed Empire State Manufacturing report showed broad-based weakening across most components, with 8 of the 10 sub-indices lower and only 2 higher (excluding the headline index). New orders fell sharply to 0.0 from 15.9, while shipments dropped to -5.7 from 16.8, signaling a clear slowdown in demand and activity.
Employment was one of the few bright spots, edging higher to 7.3 from 6.6, although the average workweek declined to 3.5 from 7.7, suggesting limited follow-through in labor demand.
Price pressures eased meaningfully, with prices paid falling to 37.6 from 49.0 and prices received slipping to 19.8 from 24.0. Unfilled orders deteriorated further to -14.9 from -5.8, and delivery times swung lower to -5.9 from 7.7, pointing to faster deliveries but weaker demand. Inventories eased modestly to 4.0 from 6.7, while supply availability improved slightly, rising to -6.9 from -11.5. Overall, the December report highlights cooling activity and easing inflation pressures, with resilience limited mainly to employment and supply conditions.
NY Fed Empire State Manufacturing Index: six-month outlook turns more optimistic despite mixed cost and labor signals
- General business conditions 35.7 versus 19.1 last month
- New orders 38.0 versus 23.3 last month
- Shipments 33.3 versus 23.3 last month.
- Number of employees 8.8 versus 11.9 last month.
- Average employee workweek 12.9 versus 5 point last month
- Prices paid 55.4 versus 62.5 last month
- Prices received 46.5 versus 41.3 last month
- Capital expenditures 6.9 versus 11.5 last month
- unfilled orders 12.9 versus 1.0 last month
The six-month forward-looking components of the December Empire State Manufacturing survey showed a notable improvement in sentiment, with 6 of the 9 forward components higher and 3 lower compared with last month. Future general business conditions jumped to 35.7 from 19.1, signaling a sharp rise in optimism. New orders rose to 38.0 from 23.3 and shipments increased to 33.3 from 23.3, pointing to expectations for stronger demand and activity ahead.
Labor expectations were mixed: the number of employees slipped to 8.8 from 11.9, while the average workweek rose to 12.9 from 5.0, suggesting firms expect to lean more on hours than hiring.
Price pressures moderated on the input side, with prices paid falling to 55.4 from 62.5, but prices received increased to 46.5 from 41.3, implying firms expect better pricing power.
Capital spending plans eased to 6.9 from 11.5, while unfilled orders surged to 12.9 from 1.0, reinforcing expectations of stronger future demand.
Overall, the forward indicators point to improving growth optimism, even as firms remain cautious on hiring and investment and continue to navigate elevated—but easing—cost pressures.
