China’s growth outlook is deteriorating as fading export momentum exposes deeper structural weaknesses in the economy, Nomura warned at a recent investment forum. The bank’s chief China economist said the combination of a prolonged property downturn, soft consumer spending and shrinking fixed-asset investment leaves the economy increasingly reliant on policy support.
Nomura now expects China’s GDP growth to slip toward 4% over the coming quarters. While official data showed a 5.2% year-on-year expansion for the first nine months of 2025, quarterly growth slowed to 4.8% in Q3 — a pace Nomura sees as a sign of broadening deceleration across investment, consumption and trade.
Fixed-asset investment — which makes up roughly 40% of GDP — has been contracting every month since June and plunged 12.2% in October, a decline Nomura called “historically rare.” Retail sales have also weakened, easing from 3.7% growth in July to 2.9% in October, with the bank warning the rate may drift toward 2% in the months ahead.
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The warning reinforces expectations of further policy easing from Beijing and may weigh on China-sensitive assets, commodities and regional FX, particularly if data continue trending toward 4% growth.
