Nomura expects a rebound in China’s U.S.-bound exports in June, citing a surge in container bookings and freight rates as signs of a recovery following recent trade disruptions.
The logistics network, disrupted by a near trade embargo, is expected to take several weeks to normalize, contributing to a delayed but stronger pickup in exports.
Risks remain, with Nomura warning of a potential pullback once the current 90-day tariff suspension expires in mid-August.
- Despite the short-term rebound, the bank maintains a cautious full-year outlook, forecasting export growth to slow to around 0% in 2025, down from 5.8% last year, with exports expected to weigh on GDP.
