- One year inflation expectations +3.4% vs +3.2%
- Three-year inflation unchanged at 3.0%
- Five year inflation unchanged at 3.0%
- Job-finding expectations hit record low
- Expectations of home price growth unchanged at 3%
- Perception of credit access fell
- Expectations of losing a job rose
- Median one-year-ahead earnings growth expectations remained unchanged at 2.6% in November
- The mean perceived probability that U.S. stock prices will be higher 12 months from now increased by 0.1 percentage point to 38.0%.
From the survey:
Perceptions about households’ current financial situations deteriorated notably, with a larger share of respondents reporting that their households were worse off compared to a year ago and a smaller share reporting they were better off. Expectations about year-ahead financial situations also deteriorated slightly, with a smaller share of respondents reporting that their households are expecting to be better off a year from now.
Mean unemployment expectations—or the mean probability that the U.S. unemployment rate will be higher one year from now—improved slightly, decreasing by 0.4 percentage point to 42.1 percent.
The mean perceived probability of losing one’s job in the next 12 months increased by 1.4 percentage points to 15.2%. The reading is above the series’ 12-month trailing average of 14.3%. The increase was broad-based across age and education groups. The mean probability of leaving one’s job voluntarily, or the expected quit rate, in the next 12 months decreased by 0.2 percentage point to 17.5%.
That last one is the most worrisome but it should speak to lower wage demand as well, something that should allow the Fed to cut rates more deeply. Along those lines, "Median one-year-ahead earnings growth expectations decreased by 0.1 percentage point to 2.5% in December, remaining below its 12-month trailing average of 2.7%. The series has been moving within the 2.4% to 3.0% range since May 2021."
