Morgan Stanley expects ECB to end rate hikes in July

  • The firm sees a peak in the cycle at 3.75%

That means two more rate hikes to go i.e. a 25 bps move in June and a similar one in July. That is consistent with the current market pricing, with a peak rate of 3.70% being priced in now.

A move in June and then July seems to be what policymakers are clearly hinting at but anything after will be highly subject to data developments in the next few months.

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