Morgan Stanley bearish on the euro, prefer short EUR/JPY to short EUR/USD

  • Also losing conviction dollar strength

Via a note from Morgan Stanley late last week:

  • closed its short EUR/USD trade recommendation
  • prefers short EUR/JPY instead
  • expects the euro to fall due to a weakening eurozone economy
  • expects JPY to rise as US rates fall

On the USD, are less bullish, “Our conviction about dollar strength has waned meaningfully”:

  • “US data deceleration has compressed growth differentials, US rates have fallen further compared with peers, and investors appear far from defensive based on equity returns.”
eur yen jpy forecast 08 January 2024

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