Morgan Stanley and UBS increase their 2025 China GDP forecasts

Morgan Stanley increases 2025 China GDP forecast to 4.8% from 4.5%.

• UBS upgrades 2025 China GDP forecast to 4.7%.
• ANZ boosts China 2025 GDP forecast to 5.1%, from 4.2%

The higher projections come following yesterday's data:

• China Q2 GDP +1.1% q/q (vs. +0.9% expected. +1.2% prior))

In y/y terms the headline was +5.2%

• expected +5.1%, prior +5.4%

After adjusting for inflation (in H1 CPI -0.1%, PPI -2.8%), in nominal terms the economy grew 3.9%.