The news and in brief reasoning is here from earlier:
And other analysts are also cutting:
- ICYMI - Nomura slashes its forecast for China's 2023 GDP growth to 5.1% from 5.5%
- UBS revised down its China 2023 GDP growth forecast to 5.2%, from 5.7% previously
More from Goldman Sachs, citing as reasoning for their downgraded forecast:
- upcoming policy easing is unlikely to exceed those implemented in previous downturns
- Property and infrastructure stimulus will probably be “targeted and moderate” (GS cites shrinking population, elevated debt levels and President Xi calling for curbing property speculation)
- government may accelerate the issuance of local government special bonds, which are mainly used for infrastructure construction
- may also continue to ease property policies including lowering down-payment requirements, cutting mortgage interest rates and removing purchase restrictions in top-tier cities
- supporting industries considered as new growth drivers of the economy, such as high-end manufacturing and new energy vehicles ... he impact on GDP growth is likely limited because these plans have already been in place for years
