- Our policy right now is moderately restrictive.
- The labour market is stable and has been resilient.
- Q1 GDP showed the real side of the economy is resilient.
- Scenarios are important amid high degrees of uncertainty.
- Retail sales showed some front loading.
- There could be some pullback in consumer spending.
- Important to keep long-run inflation expectations stable.
- I see some upside risk to inflation from tariffs.
- The economy has been resilient so far.
- Economic health gives the Fed time to make progress on inflation.
- It's unclear how tairff policy will shake out.
Fed policymakers are now working in scenarios amid the uncertainty on trade policies rather than trying to give a more concrete forward guidance.
