Moody’s Analytics on the US debt ceiling showdown:
- We now assign a 10% probability to a breach.
- If there is a breach, it is much more likely to be a short one than a prolonged one.
- But even a lengthy standoff no longer has a zero probability.
- What once seemed unimaginable now seems a real threat.
Adds:
- “spiking interest rates and plunging equity prices,” even if it’s just a brief breach of the debt limit
House leader McCarthy and US President Biden are the two key players in negotiations.
