JPMorgan is leaning outside consensus and now sees the ECB lowering rates at each of the next four meetings, which would get them to 1.50% in September.
The consensus at the moment is for 64 bps by then, not 100 bps but they expect the recessionary headwinds from Trump's trade war to dampen the outlook. They see the trade war taking a 1.5 percentage point bite out of GDP by the end of 2026 (from what it would otherwise be).
