JP Morgan says that while in the current environment, uncertainty is high, war in Israel is unlikely to disrupt oil supplies.
The 'but' is:
- "There has been no immediate impact on current global oil production ... supply could be disrupted if the U.S. were strictly to enforce restrictions on Iranian oil exports or if disruptions spread to the Strait of Hormuz"
- “Near-term supply-demand balance and the resulting change in oil inventories remain the main fundamental drivers of our oil price forecast, not geopolitics”
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Brent update:
