- Prior month 7.227M
- JOLTs job openings 7.670M vs 7.150M estimate
October hires were little changed, holding at 5.1 million.
The hire rate remained steady at 3.2%.
No significant hiring shifts occurred across any major industries
In October, total separations were little changed at 5.1 million and a 3.2% rate.
Total separations fell in health care & social assistance (-111,000) and the federal government (-34,000).
Quits in October were little changed at 2.9 million with a 1.8% rate.
Quits were down 276,000 over the year.
Quits decreased in:
Accommodation & food services (-136,000)
Health care & social assistance (-114,000)
Federal government (-25,000)
Federal government quits hit a series high of 46,000 in September.
Quits increased in:
Arts, entertainment & recreation (+38,000)
Information (+21,000)
Job openings moving higher is generally a positive sign for the labor market, suggesting that employers still want to hire.
However, the quits rate falling to its lowest level since 2020 tells a different story. Quits typically rise when workers feel confident they can easily find another job; their decline signals anxiety and caution beneath the surface. This contrast highlights a job market that looks healthy on the demand side but shows waning worker confidence.
The jobs picture to me is muddy. Initial jobless claims dropped below 200K last week, a level usually associated with strong labor conditions, though the Thanksgiving holiday makes the seasonal adjustment less reliable. Today’s ADP report also moved back into positive territory, reversing recent weakness from a negative monthly reading. Together, the data point to an uptick in employment.
What will the Fed say tomorrow?
The data point to hawkish cut.
