The situation is as such currently:
- With Komeito breaking the ruling coalition alliance, the LDP no longer commands a clear majority in parliament
- In fact, there is no single party or clear-cut coalition that commands a majority at the moment
- That is forcing the LDP to seek alternative partners to strike a compromise in order to secure a majority
- The LDP has chosen to try and tie up with the Nippon Ishin party and the first round of talks begun yesterday
- Meanwhile, opposition parties are also scrambling to find a unified deal/pact to challenge Takaichi and the LDP
- As things stand, Yuichiro Tamaki of the DPFP party is the name being floated around to lead the possible alliance
- But again, it depends if opposition parties can coordinate and get behind a single candidate to represent their cause
Despite facing some opposition, the vote for the next prime minister is now set for 21 October. I would think the LDP wouldn't be careless enough to push forward with that unless they are sure that they could finalise an alliance with Nippon Ishin later today or over the weekend at least.
The Japanese lower house has 465 seats in total and for any candidate to win, they would need a simple majority of 233 seats. Now, a straight deal between the LDP and Nippon Ishin would not be enough to cover the simple majority needed to win. But if there are enough abstentions (question marks on Komeito still as well) or some of the smaller parties do side with them, then that should see a path for Takaichi to become the next prime minister.
The tricky part now is whether or not all opposition parties, including Komeito, will do their part in voting against Takaichi and the alliance between the LDP and Nippon Ishin. If they manage to somehow band together and stay unified under a single banner, that could ultimately see Tamaki come out ahead as prime minister.
It's not the simplest arrangement but at the same time, it's not the hardest thing to imagine happening. I'd wager the odds as being closer to a coin flip now than the LDP-Nippon Ishin pact as being the clear favourite, even if the odds are tilted towards their favour still.
In short, there's plenty of little nuances still in play that will make the difference in the vote on Tuesday next week.
For now, we'll have to take one step at a time. And for today, that means scrutinising what becomes of the talks between the LDP and Nippon Ishin first.
