The market is sensing a deal where Iran gives up nuclear and gets basically everything else it's asking for. The thinking is that Trump wants a way out and can't have the Strait closed for much longer.
The latest report is from the New York Post and said that Iranian officials are studying abandoning uranium enrichment for ending the war. Now that's a dubious source and unlikely to be from Iran but it has helped to boost sentiment.
US stocks nearly retraced to unchanged on the day.
In any case, surely Iran has 'studied' this as it's been a US demand for more than a decade.
Update: The skepticism around this was justified as the reporter is now saying it's "nothing new".
Iranian officials are still considering the US proposal to end the war, centered around giving up uranium enrichment. One thing affecting why Iran couldn’t make a deal while US was in Islamabad: while Vance called Trump 6+ times, Iranians could not call their final decision-maker back in Tehran due to security risks — and likely would have had to return home to discuss an agreement in person, a Pakistani analyst told me.
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This took off unnecessarily, and now I have a responsibility to clarify. All I meant was: 1) The proposal centered on Iran giving up its nuclear program -- that we knew from Vice President JD Vance on Sunday. 2) It's still a possibility that Iran could accept that point. None of this is new (which is why I haven't published anything on it.)
