Headlines:
- Oil extends gains, risk slumps further after Trump address
- Crude oil surges back above $100 after Trump's speech as traders price out optimism
- Dollar back in favour as Trump address dims market optimism
- Gold erases gains as Trump disappoints the market; Downside risks remain
- Iran claims to have targeted US-linked steel and aluminum facilities in the Gulf region
- OPEC+ set to weigh further oil production increase on Sunday - report
- Gulf countries reportedly mulls new pipelines to bypass Strait of Hormuz
- How have interest rate expectations changed after this week's events?
- ECB's Simkus: Too early to say what we'll need to do in April
- Switzerland March CPI +0.3% vs +0.5% y/y expected
- US March Challenger layoffs 60.620k vs 48.307k prior
Markets:
- WTI crude oil up over 9% to $109.63
- S&P 500 futures down 1.5%
- European indices down heavily across the board
- USD leads the way as risk retreats
- 10-year Treasury yields up 4 bps to 4.36%
- Gold lower by 3.3% to $4,600, Silver down 6.1% to $70.57
- Bitcoin down 3% to $66,180
If yesterday was all about the anticipation ahead of US president Trump's address on the Iran situation, today is all about the disappointment to that. While Trump tried to pave the way to declare victory soon, he still said the US needs 2-3 more weeks to clean up operations in Iran. And that's not exactly the kind of timeline that markets want to hear at this point in time.
With the oil market as stressed as it is already, adding a couple more weeks at the very least isn't going to help alleviate the ongoing pressure. That and the fact there is still much uncertainty up in the air even if the US decides to slowly pull back from the conflict.
And the most important thing is, Iran is still not giving up control of the Strait of Hormuz. So, markets are responding in kind to the status quo being prolonged.
Oil prices ramped up higher with WTI crude now jumping up by over 9% to above $109 and poised for its highest daily close since 2022.
In turn, risk sentiment soured across broader markets. European indices are erasing the gains from yesterday with S&P 500 futures also seen down by 1.5% at the lows for the day. This comes as the selling also extends to the bond market and precious metals. 10-year yields in the US are up 4 bps to 4.36% with gold down over 3% to $4,600. Meanwhile, silver is down over 6% to $70.57 on the day.
In FX, the dollar returns back in favour as market players revert back to the dash for cash. EUR/USD fell by 0.6% to 1.1515 now while AUD/USD is down 0.9% to 0.6865 on the day.
As a reminder, it is a long weekend in Europe with the Easter holidays coming up. So, that could really ramp up the de-risking mood before the day comes to an end later.
