Fed:
- FOMC Preview: Focus on the dot plot and Fed Chair Powell guidance
- Dissents and dot plots in focus for the Fed later in the day
- FOMC Hawks and Doves: A comprehensive overview
- Fed preview: Most banks expect 25 bp cut, some 50 bp bigger easing, bigger impact, move
Headlines:
- Gold cools from record highs with eyes on the Fed today
- China tells its tech companies to stop buying all of Nvidia's AI chips - FT
- ECB's de Guindos: The current interest rate is appropriate
- ECB's Escriva: We need to be agile and ready to move in any direction on monetary policy
- ECB's Stournaras: Soft landing achieved, but must remain flexible and ready to act
- UK August CPI +3.8% vs +3.8% y/y expected
- Eurozone August final CPI +2.0% vs +2.1% y/y prelim
- US MBA mortgage applications w.e. 12 September +29.7% vs +9.2% prior
Markets:
- JPY leads, EUR lags on the day
- European equities little changed; S&P 500 futures down 0.1%
- US 10-year yields down 1 bps to 4.016%
- Gold down 0.7% to $3,665.19
- WTI crude oil down 0.7% to $64.09
- Bitcoin down 0.5% to $116,347
The European trading session today is one filled with waiting and cautious anticipation ahead of the FOMC meeting decision later today.
The dollar kept steadier after stumbling heavily in trading yesterday, with EUR/USD recouping some light ground from around 1.1860 to 1.1835-40 levels during the session. But besides that, there is very little movement as traders are keeping a more tentative approach in the lead up to the Fed later.
Other major currencies are only seeing light changes in general against the greenback, all holding within 0.1% change on the day currently.
In the equities space, we are seeing stocks also hold a more cautious mood. US futures are marginally lower while European indices are now flattish for the most part after some light gains at the open. That reaffirms the more tentative mood overall as market players are all waiting on the Fed before committing to the next move.
Among the more notable movers today are commodities with precious metals being pushed lower amid some profit-taking activity. Gold is down 0.7% to $3,665 after briefly clipping $3,700 yesterday while silver is down over 2% to $41.63 after having neared the $43 level in the day before.
In terms of data, we had UK inflation meeting expectations and that will just reaffirm a policy pause by the BOE tomorrow.
