Headlines:
- What is the distribution of forecasts for the US NFP?
- Who's got the most bullish NFP forecast this time around?
- Non-farm payrolls seen accelerating as unemployment rate holds steady - JP Morgan
- US payrolls to stay supported but unemployment rate seen increasing further - Citi
- Trump: I have cancelled previously expected second wave of attacks on Venezuela
- Oklo jumps 20% in pre-market as Meta unveils nuclear deals to power data centers
- What are the interest rate expectations for the major central banks at the start of 2026?
- French stocks eye fresh record highs to start the day in Europe
- Here's why the rest of the world has to keep an eye on China's deflation story
- Germany November industrial production +0.8% vs -0.4% m/m expected
- Swiss unemployment rate keeps steady in December but the trend remains clear
Markets:
- USD leads, JPY lags on the day
- European equities higher; S&P 500 futures up 0.1%
- US 10-year yields up 0.6 bps to 4.189%
- Gold down 0.1% to $4,470.54
- WTI crude oil up 0.8% to $58.25
- Bitcoin down 1.1% to $90,168
It's all about the US labour market report as we look to wrap up the week. And that's the main event that market players were gearing towards in European morning trade today.
There wasn't too much happening during the session, coming off Asia trading where we saw China miraculously staving off deflation - at least by the number - in 2025. The dollar firmed across the board in European trading but the gains are relatively measured.
USD/JPY is the notable gainer, moving up by 0.5% to 157.66, while EUR/USD is just down slightly by 0.2% to 1.1640 on the day. Besides that, USD/CAD is up 0.1% to 1.3875 while AUD/USD is down 0.3% to 0.6677 currently. All in all, the moves are light with no real convictions just yet before we get to the non-farm payrolls.
In the equities space, risk sentiment looks to be steadier in Europe but more so on edge in general. Major indices in Europe continue to scale up with the DAX and CAC 40 pressing fresh record highs and looking to end the week with a flourish. Meanwhile, US futures are more tepid with S&P 500 futures just up 0.1% as AI valuation concerns continue to linger after yesterday's action.
Besides that, there wasn't much else taking place with precious metals holding relatively steadier compared to the volatile price action we've been seeing to start the new year. Gold is just marginally lower to $4,470 while silver is up "only" by 1% to $77.92 in a slight rebound after an early drag that carried over from yesterday.
Well, it's all on the US jobs report now as well as the Supreme Court rulings for today, in which the court may release opinions in argued cases during a scheduled sitting at 1500 GMT. On the latter though, do keep in mind that the court does not announce ahead of time which rulings it intends to issue. So, whether or not we'll see Trump's tariffs get mentioned remain to be seen. But in any case, just keep a look out on that.
