- US MBA mortgage applications w.e. 28 November -1.4% vs +0.2% prior
- ECB's Lane: Counterproductive to respond to near-term deviations
- Dollar continues to ease lower to start December trading
- The INR falls to a new all-time low with RBI expected to cut the repo rate on Friday
- Eurozone October PPI +0.1% vs +0.1% m/m expected
- UK November final services PMI 51.3 vs 50.5 prelim
- Eurozone November final services PMI 53.6 vs 53.1 prelim
- Germany November final services PMI 53.1 vs 52.7 prelim
- France November final services PMI 51.4 vs 50.8 prelim
- Italy November services PMI 55.0 vs 54.0 expected
- China reportedly to likely still target 5% GDP growth for next year
- Spain November services PMI 55.6 vs 56.1 expected
- Switzerland November CPI 0.0% vs +0.1% y/y expected
- What are the main events for today?
- Goldman Sachs eyes weaker dollar going into the turn of the year
The main highlight of the session was the Swiss CPI report. The data missed expectations once again but the reaction in the CHF was fairly muted. This is mainly because the SNB has stated several times that the bar for negative rates is very high, so it leaves us with basically no space for further easing.
We had also the final services PMI for the UK and the major Eurozone economies. All of them were revised higher, showing that economic conditions remain upbeat. The data didn't change anything for the ECB or the BoE though, with the former comfortably on the sidelines and the latter expected to deliver a 25 bps cut this month.
The most notable mover in the session was the US dollar as it fell to new lows against most major currencies. The retreat in Treasury yields definitely didn't help the greenback. This is still in line with the view of slow depreciation into the FOMC after Fed's Williams endorsed the December cut.
A rate cut is now a done deal, and we just have the US ADP, ISM Services PMI and Jobless Claims separating us from the FOMC decision next Wednesday. We will likely need notable upside surprises in the data to give the US dollar a boost.
